The United Kingdom is preparing for a crucial general election on Thursday (July 4). Since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s unexpected call for a snap general election outside 10 Downing Street on a rain-soaked day in late May, the campaign trail has been marked with political scandals and gaffes.
Experts and polling data indicate a potentially landmark election, with the Labour Party poised to dethrone the Conservatives after their 14-year tenure. Meanwhile, the right-wing populist Reform UK is emerging as a significant contender for the opposition.
This election is set to be a significant event in the nation’s political landscape, with major implications for its future direction. All will be settled in polling but before that here is what you need to know about election day:
Timing, constituencies and polling process
The 2024 UK general election will be held on Thursday, July 4, with polling stations open from 7 am (06.00 GMT) to 10 pm (21.00 GMT). Registered voters in the 650 parliamentary constituencies will cast their ballots to elect members of parliament (MPs) using the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system.
In the FPTP system, the candidate with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP, regardless of whether they secured 50% of the votes. This differs from proportional representation (PR) systems used in many other European countries, where parliamentary seats are allocated based on the percentage of votes each party receives.
Once the polls close, the votes will be counted, and the results are expected to be announced in the early hours of July 5. If a single party wins a majority of the 650 seats, their leader will become the new Prime Minister. If no party achieves a majority, a hung parliament will be declared, and the largest party may attempt to form a coalition government.
The two main contenders for Prime Minister are Rishi Sunak of the Conservative Party and Keir Starmer of the Labour Party. Current polling suggests Labour is on course for a comfortable majority, but the final results may differ.
Why did Rishi Sunak call for elections on July 4?
Rishi Sunak, the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, called a snap general election for July 4, 2024, even though the next election was not required until December 2024. This decision has left political analysts puzzled, as Sunak’s reasoning remains a mystery to those outside his inner circle.
FILE – Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks to the media, as heavy rain falls, outside 10 Downing Street in London Wednesday, May 22, 2024, as he announces that he is to call a General Election for July 4. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File)
Here are key points regarding Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a snap general election -:
1. Leveraging economic positives: Sunak’s gamble is to capitalise on recent positive economic developments, such as lower inflation and a return to growth, to maximise the Conservatives’ electoral chances. There are fears that tougher economic times may lie ahead.
2. Avoiding further challenges: Calling an early election was seen as the “least bad option” to avoid potential further bad news, like more people facing higher mortgage payments and the ongoing migrant crisis, which could have hurt the Conservatives’ chances.
3. Threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party: Holding the election earlier was also seen as a way to limit the impact of Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party, which has been siphoning votes from the Conservatives.
4. Internal party dynamics: The early election call was an attempt to pause internal conflicts within the Conservative Party and stem the flow of defections from Tory MPs.
5. Sunak’s personal stakes: The election is also important for Sunak personally as a poor performance could have led to calls for his removal as party leader.
Key parties, candidates and issues
The primary political parties contesting the election are the Conservative Party, Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party (SNP), Plaid Cymru, Green Party, and Reform UK. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and will have governed for 14 years by the time of the election.
Britain’s Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks during a visit to the Caledonian Gladiators Stadium in East Kilbride, Scotland, Wednesday July 3, 2024, while on the General Election campaign trail. (Andrew Milligan/PA via AP)
Key candidates include Rishi Sunak (Conservative), Keir Starmer (Labour), Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), and Adam Price (Plaid Cymru). This election will be a crucial test for these leaders and their parties.
The election is occurring amid significant economic and social challenges. The major issues include the high cost of living, failing public services such as the NHS, rising immigration, and housing shortages. The cost of living crisis, driven by high inflation and slow economic growth, has left many Britons feeling financially worse off.
The NHS is grappling with long waiting lists and staff shortages, highlighting broader concerns about public service efficiency. Immigration continues to be a contentious issue, with ongoing debates about control and its impact on services and social cohesion. Housing affordability is another critical concern, particularly for younger voters, due to high property prices and rents. The winner will face the daunting tasks of tackling inflation, reducing the deficit, and improving public services.
Additionally, this will be the first general election since Brexit in 2020 and the first under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, which introduced new rules for calling elections.
Why are the Conservatives performing so badly in the polls?
The Conservative Party in the UK is facing a significant electoral challenge ahead of the July 4th general election. Several factors have contributed to their poor performance in the polls. The “Partygate” scandal, where government officials were found to have violated lockdown restrictions, has severely damaged public trust in the Conservative government. Additionally, the disruptive economic policies of the short-lived Liz Truss government in 2022 further eroded confidence in the party’s competence.
After 14 years in power, many voters are seeking a change in government. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is seen as a potentially more stable alternative. Polls consistently show Labour with a substantial lead over the Conservatives, often by 20 points or more. The Conservative Party has also been plagued by candidate scandals, with the UK Gambling Commission investigating individuals linked to the party for suspicious betting activity related to the election date. Two candidates, Craig Williams and Laura Saunders, have been dropped from the party’s list of candidates as a result.
Despite some positive economic indicators, such as lower inflation and unemployment, the Conservatives have failed to deliver on key promises, particularly in areas like the NHS and immigration control. This perceived lack of progress has contributed to the public’s dissatisfaction with the party. The 2024 general election will be the first to take place under new constituency boundaries, which could further disadvantage the Conservatives.
While Labour also faces challenges, such as Starmer’s weak personal polling and the party’s shift to the centre, the prevailing sentiment among voters seems to be a desire for change after more than a decade of Conservative rule.
Polling and projections
According to the latest polls, Labour is the clear favourite to win a majority in the 2024 UK general election. The Conservatives are facing record lows in the polls, putting them in a very difficult “arithmetical reality” as their voters are concentrated in constituencies they are trying to defend. Additionally, the rise of Reform UK will further challenge the Conservatives in those areas.
Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party speaks to media during a visit to a boxing gym in Clacton-on-Sea, England, Wednesday, July 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
Voter engagement does not appear to be as strong in this election cycle compared to 2019, and there is evidence of a degree of voter disillusionment with the two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives. Tonge, a politics professor, predicts an “apathetic landslide” for Labour, which could result in a slightly lower turnout than the last election.
Based on current forecasts, Tonge suggests that getting more than 100 seats would be a good result for the Conservatives, a huge drop from their 365 seats won in 2019. Such a result would provoke an “ideological and political debate for the heart and soul of the British political right,” leaving the Conservatives with a choice of either going down the “Farage route” of tougher policies on immigration and tax cuts, or trying to rebuild as a centre-right party without any association with Reform UK.
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