Nifty: Will Nifty repeat history and bounce back in July after 3 months of decline?


Mumbai: Concerns remain about inflation, geopolitics and a possible slowdown in the US, but Market Historical data shows that indices rise after falling for three consecutive months.

Benchmark nifty Metals ended June down 4.85% due to fall pharma And realty sector and recently touched a low of 15,183.

Migrant investors Remained as it is

Their sales in June for the ninth consecutive month recorded the second-highest sales in a month amid broader macro concerns.

“In the last 20 years, Nifty has not given negative returns for more than three consecutive months. There are 10 instances in this period where the index has fallen for three consecutive months and the average gain in the fourth month has been around 5.4%,” says Shriram Velayudhan, Vice President – ​​Alternative Research at IIFL.

Will Nifty repeat history after 3 months of decline and climb up in July?

“The market is oversold, so this may work in its favor,” Sriram said.

In the last such instance in 2020 when benchmarks fell for three consecutive months, Nifty gained 14.7% in April – the fourth month. In January to March 2020, the index had lost 29.43% amid the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Nifty is down 8.75% so far this year and is down 14.88% from its all-time high of 18,604.45 hit in October last year.

In the short term, the index is expected to rise to 16,000-16,100.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Technical and Derivatives, Axis Securities said, “There is a possibility that the market will bounce back. Whenever it happens, the markets take some positive action.”

Palviya said, “Technically Nifty has crossed the 20-day moving average and further upside of 200-300 points cannot be ruled out.


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